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采用华山气象站1980—2007年的电线积冰观测资料和陕西省95个气象观测站资料,分析了电线积冰厚度与常规气象资料的相关性,并据此推算出各地距地面10m高度上历年标准的电线积冰厚度,用极值Ⅰ型推断30和50年一遇的最大积冰厚度。结合陕西省电力设计院设计经验、陕西省电网运行现状及历史电网冰灾事故调查情况,对陕西省电网冰区进行了初步划分。结果表明:最大积冰厚度与年雾凇日数、年雨凇日数有较好相关性;将全省分为6个积冰区,并分别绘制出全省不同区域30和50年一遇的1:500000积冰分布图。该结果已作为陕西省电力建设中电线积冰厚度设计的重要依据。 相似文献
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《Atmospheric Research》2010,95(4):694-703
The German Weather Service (DWD) has two non-hydrostatic operational weather prediction models with different spatial resolution and precipitation parametrisations. The coarser COSMO-EU model has a spatial resolution of 7 km, whereas the higher-resolution COSMO-DE model has a gridspace of 2.8 km and explicitly resolves deep convection. To improve the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models it is necessary to understand precipitation processes. A central goal is the statistical evaluation of precipitation forecasts with dynamic parameters. Here, the Dynamic State Index (DSI) is used as a dynamic threshold parameter. The DSI theoretically describes the change of atmospheric flow fields as deviations from a stationary adiabatic solution of the primitive equations (Névir, 2004). For seasonal area means the DSI shows a remarkably high correlation with the precipitation forecasts provided by the COSMO-DE model. This is especially the case for the summer of 2007. The same analysis has been performed with the COSMO-EU forecast data and the results were compared with those from the COSMO-DE model. Moreover, an independent precipitation analysis, with a resolution corresponding to 7 km and 2.8 km, has been compared with respect to modelled precipitation and the DSI. In addition, correlations between the DSI and modelled as well as observed precipitation as a function of the forecast time for the different grid resolutions are also presented. The results show, that after 12 h, the correlation of the persistence forecast with the DSI reaches two thirds of the initial value. Thus, the DSI offers itself as a new dynamic forecast tool for precipitation events. 相似文献
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